New Rules · Issue 01 · 28 Sep 2026 · Biweekly

The machine speeds up; the split is still pending.

The future showed up unannounced, and the manual is in another language. Finance, tech and AI, every two weeks.

Stories10
Transition6
Abundance2
Mixed2
The thesis

Welcome to New Rules.

Our thesis fits in a tweet, even if nobody wants to tweet it: within 50 years AI and robots will do the work and generate the wealth, and humans will live comfortable, quiet lives. The problem is the road. The transition is going to hurt, and it will hurt before the pie is big enough for everyone.

Every two weeks we pick the 10 stories that move that thesis, check them against their original source, and tell you, without anesthesia, which way they push. Neither doomsayers nor snake-oil salesmen: just people who read the quarterly filings so you don't have to.

This issue's thread

This fortnight the machine floored it and the split stayed on the curb. New models are solving math nobody had solved and designing proteins that work in a lab; the intelligence of a few months ago now costs a hundredth as much. Meanwhile, the IMF warns that the skilled middle class is being left out, Broadcom is lending money to its own customers so they keep buying, and the Inter-American Development Bank figures Latin American wages could rise 5% or fall 21% depending on who manages to switch lanes.

Translation: abundance now has a delivery date. So does the bill for the transition.

This fortnight's thermometer
Abundance · 2Mixed · 2Painful transition · 6
01 //

The machine

What machines can already do, and what it costs to have them do it.

02 // THE MACHINEPainful transition

GPT-6 Astra scores 98 on the hardest math exam, and nobody's quite sure how it thought it through

OpenAI unveiled GPT-6 Astra and the numbers read like a joke: 98% on FrontierMath Tier 4, 99.9% on ARC-AGI-3 and 100% on a hacking exam. The company says it has already helped solve math problems that stayed open for years. All self-reported, as usual.

Two less festive details: it is the first OpenAI model its own scale rates 'Critical' for cybersecurity, and it uses a reasoning technique that makes it harder to audit how it reached its answers. More capable and less transparent, just in time for companies to hand it the office work.

New rule

If your job fits in a browser tab, it's already on someone's to-do list.

OpenAI · 3 Sep 2026 · Official announcement (self-reported benchmarks)
Read the source ↗

Also: On the 'opaque recurrence' controversy: TechCrunch ↗

03 // THE MACHINEAbundance

A language model designs proteins that work in a lab, and it wasn't even its lab

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, the same model with different locks. The number that matters isn't a benchmark: it designed proteins that bind their target with a hit rate near 50% across 12 targets, when the trade norm runs 10 to 15%. According to the company, two outside organizations validated them in the lab.

It also did in days optimizations that take a team of engineers weeks, at 30 to 60% less compute cost. Conflict notice: this issue was researched with Claude. We're telling you anyway because it's one of the few stories this fortnight pushing on the pretty side of the thesis.

New rule

Expensive science is about to get cheap. The hard part won't be discovering, it'll be deciding what to do with what we discover.

Anthropic · 1 Sep 2026 · Official announcement (self-reported; outside lab validation per Anthropic)
Read the source ↗
10 // THE MACHINEAbundance

The intelligence of a few months ago now costs a hundredth as much. Your coffee still costs the same

OpenAI launched GPT-6 Sol and Luna and cut its API prices in half. The number that should keep more than one CFO up at night: according to OpenAI, Luna performs like the previous generation's flagship at about a hundredth of the cost.

When something gets a hundred times cheaper, it stops being a luxury and becomes plumbing. That's abundance in its purest form, and also the reason automating office work no longer needs a justification in a meeting.

New rule

When thinking costs pennies, what's expensive again is knowing what to ask.

OpenAI · 22 Sep 2026 · Official announcement (self-reported benchmarks)
Read the source ↗
02 //

The money

Who is funding the party and who picks up the check.

01 // THE MONEYPainful transition

The IMF signs off on our thesis, then adds the fine print

The International Monetary Fund published its annual report and, without meaning to, wrote this newsletter's editorial. AI has already added about half a point to US growth: the wealth is arriving. But the same document says middle-skilled workers, the ones whose jobs are highly exposed to automation, are being left out.

And the fine print: if all this investment doesn't pay off, the IMF sees room for a sharp reversal in valuations, wealth destruction and layoffs. In other words, the boom could end up being paid for by people who never got on it.

New rule

The job market is no longer a ladder, it's an hourglass. Make sure you're not standing at the waist.

International Monetary Fund · 23 Sep 2026 · High evidence (primary IMF document)
Read the source ↗

Also: Publication date confirmed in: Vanguard (Sep 24, 2026) ↗

06 // THE MONEYPainful transition

Broadcom triples its AI sales and rediscovers commerce's oldest trick: lending the customer money to buy from you

Broadcom sold USD 16.7 billion of AI chips in one quarter, 221% more than a year earlier, and its CEO talks about reaching USD 230 billion in 2028. So far, party.

The interesting part came from its finance chief: Broadcom is helping its two most strategic customers, the big AI labs, bridge the gap between what they earn and what they need to invest. When the supplier finances the buyer, sales grow beautifully on paper. It's the circular financing the IMF flagged in the same fortnight.

New rule

When the shovel seller starts lending money to the miners, check how much gold is actually in the mine.

CNBC · 2 Sep 2026 · High evidence (SEC filing) and medium-high (call reported by CNBC)
Read the source ↗

Also: Quarterly figures in the official release: Broadcom, Form 8-K (SEC) ↗

03 //

The robots

When AI leaves the screen and clocks in.

05 // THE ROBOTSMixed

Five million robots now work in factories. China installs 59% of the new ones

The International Federation of Robotics counted 5 million industrial robots operating worldwide, 9% more than a year earlier. China installed 59% of all the planet's new robots, and the United States passed Japan as the second-largest market.

The fine print is less epic: Europe contracted, and Mexico, the poster child of nearshoring, cut installations 7% for a third straight year while Brazil grew 38%. Countries that don't automate today don't escape the robot: they just compete tomorrow against factories that have one.

New rule

The robot doesn't take your job; it takes it from the factory that didn't buy one.

International Federation of Robotics · 24 Sep 2026 · High evidence (official IFR statistics)
Read the source ↗
07 // THE ROBOTSMixed

Waymo now gives half a million rides a week with nobody behind the wheel

Driverless taxis stopped being a demo: Waymo averages 500,000 paid rides a week and operates in about 15 US cities. In Texas its fleet grew 49% in three weeks thanks to a cheaper, China-built minivan.

Driving is one of the great middle-income jobs that doesn't ask for a degree. In the long run, cheap and safe transport for everyone; in the short run, hundreds of thousands of drivers doing math.

New rule

The first mass profession to retire won't be the lawyer's: it'll be the driver's.

TechCrunch · 24 Sep 2026 · High evidence (company, state vehicle registrations)
Read the source ↗

Also: Launch in Denver, San Diego and Tampa: TechCrunch (Sep 1, 2026) ↗

04 //

The people

The side of the thesis that hurts: jobs, wages and who cushions the blow.

04 // THE PEOPLEPainful transition

The IDB runs the numbers for Latin America: switch lanes and earn 5% more, stay put and lose 21%

The Inter-American Development Bank previewed its upcoming report, and the pretty number is this: AI could lift the region's economy 5.1% in a decade. The ugly number comes attached: with limited adoption, just 0.3%.

And the one that actually matters: wages could rise 2.3% to 5.3% if workers move into growing sectors, or fall 13.5% to 20.9% if they don't. The possible loss is four times the possible gain. It's a preview of what emerging economies everywhere are about to negotiate.

New rule

In this transition the winner isn't whoever works hardest, it's whoever changes sectors first.

Forbes México (preview of the IDB flagship report) · 22 Sep 2026 · Medium evidence (multilateral projection, reported before the full report)
Read the source ↗
08 // THE PEOPLEPainful transition

The New York Fed finds out how AI fires people: by not hiring them

The New York Fed surveyed firms in its region: 61% of service companies and 51% of manufacturers already use AI. Layoffs blamed on AI are still rare, but they quadrupled in a year, from 1% to 4% of service firms.

The real signal is elsewhere: 15% of firms hire fewer people thanks to AI. The adjustment doesn't arrive with pink slips, it arrives with job postings that never go up. And that hits whoever is looking for a first job.

New rule

AI isn't going to fire you. It's just never going to hire you.

Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 1 Sep 2026 · High evidence (central bank survey, 2024-2026 series)
Read the source ↗
09 // THE PEOPLEPainful transition

A senator proposes that AI pay the unemployment checks of the people AI puts out of work

Senator Mark Kelly wants a federal fund fed by taxes on the AI industry. With that money, unemployment benefits could cover 75% of lost wages for 26 weeks, when most states today cover 30% to 50%. Microsoft and the Teamsters union back it, a couple you don't see every day.

It has no guaranteed votes and probably won't pass soon. But it's the first serious draft of the question that will define the next decade: if machines generate the wealth, who sends the bill to whom? In the House there's already another bill to tax AI tokens at rates that rise with unemployment.

New rule

If robots are going to pay taxes, start lobbying now for how that money gets spent.

KJZZ (NPR Phoenix) · 25 Sep 2026 · High evidence on the bill, none on passage
Read the source ↗

Also: The AI token tax that rises with unemployment: Fortune ↗

Method, disclosure and gaps

How we made it: four research tracks in parallel (models and compute, robotics, money and markets, jobs and redistribution) reviewed stories published between August 29 and September 26, 2026. Every quote was checked against the source's original text and then by an automated checker that downloads the page again. Three stories were held in reserve.

Disclosure: this issue was researched with Claude, by Anthropic, whose model appears in story 3. The OpenAI and Anthropic benchmarks are self-reported; no independent evaluations appeared in the window.

Gaps: the full IDB report comes out in November; several dates come from third parties (IMF via Vanguard, Astra via CNBC and TechCrunch, Fable via MarkTechPost); and Senator Kelly's press release could not be read at its source, so we don't cite the specific taxes attributed to it.

On the bench

· Oracle Announces Q1 Results Driven by Triple Digit Growth in Cloud Infrastructure Revenues — Oracle

· OpenAI says agent hacked Australian government website without being told to do so — CNBC

· What Can We Learn from Guaranteed Basic Income Pilots in the United States? Evidence on Employment Effects — American Enterprise Institute